A Rose-Colored Exit Strategy

A showdown looms between Democrats in the U.S. Congress and President George W. Bush, who has promised to veto any attempts to set a timeline for withdrawal from Iraq. But in their drive to win the domestic debate, those arguing for a U.S. exit are painting a rosy picture of an Iraq that is more likely to fall apart than to come together.

... a withdrawal announcement is much more likely to drive more Sunnis into the arms of the insurgency than it is to compel the insurgents to the negotiating table. As in many other ethnic conflicts, security and survival will increasingly come to be seen as one and the same thing, with the insurgents the only ones who can be relied on to deliver both. If anything, being seen by their community as the "last line of defense" against Shiite atrocities will ... Full Story »

Posted by Kaizar Campwala

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Review

Michael Savuto
3.8
by Michael Savuto - Oct. 1, 2008

This is good journalism in that it gives exposure to a source of opinion outside of the US, and thus not colored by US politics. That is not to say that the UK, by virtue of their support with troops, doesn't have something at stake, but Blair is already on the way out, so his successor has to deal with the war now. Perhaps this is an attempt to try to get the new PM to stay the course as well. On the other side what he offers is no option. His basic position, whether or not he states it, is that troops need to stay to see some kind of outcome that the West can find satisfactory. That doesn't look to be in the picture for the foreseeable future, at least not based upon the events and conditions we read or hear about. This open ended commitment is no better for the Coalition forces or the Iraqi people than a proposed withdrawal date. The insurgents can easily out-wait the Coalition forces, they live there, and meanwhile the deaths increase for all parties involved. Furthermore, he doesn’t offer what advantage he feels staying the course will bring, only that a fixed timetable is bad. I won’t speculate on what would happen in Iraq if either option were announced as policy. I believe that at this point the ultimate outcome in Iraq is going to be essentially the same regardless of the option chosen; the only difference is when that will occur. It is a fact, however, that the longer the Coalition forces remain in Iraq, the more deaths of those serving in Iraq will occur. The true limit of how long the Coalition forces can stay will be determined by the Coalition countries’ ability to afford the monetary cost or suffer the increasing loss of life. It appears that the public in the United States is very close to that tipping point, and their decision will then be forced on those in power. The sad part is that it doesn’t appear the Iraqi people, very people the regime change was supposed to benefit, have much say in this decision. However, they will suffer with the results.

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