The only way Iraq can overcome its many ethno-sectarian and tribal divisions and remain unified is if a massive and prolonged civil war occurs, and the winning faction holds the fractured country together by force. Otherwise, the artificial country is likely to break up into warring city-states, each with its own militia.

U.S. forces are so roundly hated in Iraq that U.S. military trainers have to quarantine themselves in fortified compounds separate from the Iraqi soldiers for fear of being fragged by those they trained.

The only way to avoid this train wreck is to withdraw U.S. forces as soon as possible, so that they don’t get caught in the melee, and hold a national conclave as they draw down. That conclave would let the Iraqis attempt to divide the country peacefully and agree on boundaries that would be honored by all. A central government could be retained, but it would have to be weak so that the various factions would not fight over control of it. Decentralization is Iraq’s only hope to avoid a massive civil war.