The senior commanders of the Revolutionary Guards (from now on I’ll use the acronym IRGC) will, I expect, remain loyal to Ayatollah Khamenei. He’s handpicked at least the first few tiers of the IRGC leadership. But it’s widely thought that the rank and file of the IRGC are somewhat reflective of the Iranian population at large, namely, young people who are interested in a better standard of life. So if the IRGC are ordered to perform major crack downs for a sustained period, I think it’s possible we may start to see cleavages amongst them.

I haven’t been able to stop thinking of Neda. She has become a symbol of this movement. Whereas the face of Iranian revolutionaries 30 years ago were bearded middle aged men, today Neda’s image—young, educated, female—symbolizes the face of the new Iran which aspires to be.

I think President Obama’s approach has been the right one. He has condemned the Iranian government’s use of violence against its population, and expressed moral support for their cause. But as long as the Iranian opposition leaders themselves ask the US to refrain from more direct involvement, I think we should continue to defer to them.