The not-so-safe haven

Like it or not, the US dollar still constitutes the de facto central framework of the present global financial order - the dollar is its fundamental support structure, much like the steel framework that supported the Twin Towers in New York. The global crisis is sending shockwaves of ever increasing intensity throughout the present order. Few thought the shaking would reach its present intensity and scope, and no one really knows how powerful and ... Full Story »

Posted by Kaizar Campwala

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Review

Dwight Rousu
4.1
by Dwight Rousu - Mar. 20, 2009

Stroupe here includes numerous quotes from Chinese officials, supporting his analysis of likely moves by international holders of U.S. treasuries.

Economics 101: if you hold bonds giving a fixed interest rate, and interest rates go up, you lose big on the value of your bond holdings. Many forget this when lulled by stable interest rates.

gold and selected government bonds (but not those of the US) look more attractive to China from a risk assessment standpoint, because China rightly fears its dollar-denominated holdings will almost certainly be inflated away over time by the US policy of issuing huge new sums of dollar-denominated debt in the form of Treasuries.

Virtually every economist on the planet calls this situation one that has the real potential for seriously and permanently damaging the dollar by inflating away too much of its remaining value not very far down the road.

minus the environment of extreme risk aversion that still plagues the markets, the US is caught between multiple contradictory interests. On the one hand, it wants to keep yields low so as to attract buyers such as China to purchase significantly more Treasuries. On the other hand, it needs higher yields to attract many new buyers because the big buyers are becoming much less able to keep up their purchases, let alone increase them.

What I am describing here is a bursting of the Treasuries bubble. It would most likely be disorderly and chaotic.

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Dwight's Rating

Overall
4.1

Good
from 17 answers
Quality
4.2
Facts
4.0
Fairness
4.0
Information
5.0
Sourcing
3.0
Style
4.0
Context
4.0
Depth
4.0
Enterprise
5.0
Popularity
4.0
Recommendation
5.0
Credibility
3.0
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