Even though hotel taxes are dropping quicker than forecast, the plan can sustain the decline provided growth returns as planned in 2012, the analysis found. The findings illustrate the high stakes behind Miami-Dade’s prediction of when a beleaguered hotel market will recover from a global economic retreat. ‘’Anybody that can tell you a forecast beyond nine months in this uncertain environment is guessing,’’ said Scott D. Berman, a Miami lodging analyst who heads the hospitality division of PricewaterhouseCoopers. ``Every day brings a new crisis.’’

For example, should hotel taxes defy the plan’s prediction of a flat 2010 and instead drop another 3 percent next year, the lost revenue would leave Miami-Dade needing an extra $17 million for the ballpark bonds two decades from now. That shortfall would hit $45 million if hotel taxes plunge 10 percent this year but achieve county targets after that, the analysis found.