Michael T. Klare, The Problem with Cheap Oil

No less important, diminished oil prices discourage investment in complex oil ventures like deep-offshore drilling, as well as investment in the development of alternatives to oil like advanced (non-food) biofuels. Perhaps most disastrously, in a cheap oil moment, investment in non-polluting, non-climate-altering alternatives like solar, wind, and tidal energy is also likely to dwindle. In the longer term, what this means is that, once a global economic ... Full Story »

Posted by Mike LaBonte

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Mike LaBonte
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by Mike LaBonte - Jan. 8, 2009

The analysis is good. Evidence is inserted selectively, but it includes links in a few places. This story comes really close to explaining the role of long investment-to-product lead times in causing large price swings, but it doesn't quite get there. Close enough, maybe.

I agree with Klare, and I further believe that oil price swings will simply become larger with each cycle, until the low price of a cycle is high enough to make alternatives attractive. Alternatives do not need to replace oil ASAP, they only need to supply the incremental increases.

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