Economic hell, and then what?
Whatever the new administration does, we're in for months, perhaps even a year, of economic hell. After that, things should get better, as President Obama's stimulus plan -- OK, I'm told that the politically correct term is now "economic recovery plan" -- begins to gain traction. Late next year the economy should begin to stabilize, and I'm fairly optimistic about 2010.
But what comes after that?
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Personally, I have a hunch that we won't see recovery in under 5 years and we better hope we do not. Say we get back to a modest 2% growth rate. That is a doubling of our GDP every 35 years. Say optomistically with new technology this doesn't double our use of water, comodities, production of garbage and pollution but only increases them by half. How many states or countries have available half as many resources again as they are using now and can deal with half as much again of civilization's garbage. The one growth development that would have a positive effect all over the show would be the development of a $1.00US/watt solar panel and we may see this soon. Most other growth would sink us further into the mire.