Final Presidential Estimate: Obama 55%, McCain 44%
The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll -- based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking -- shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain.
The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight ...
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I called elections in the 1970s for United Press International. Nothing is as stressful as that. In 1978 there was overconfidence by Democrats in South Dakota as Republican Leo Thorsness (a Medal of Honor winner and six-year Vietnam POW) surprised voters in the final days against favored Tom Daschle. Thorsness won by 75 votes, and I called that a draw. Daschle won on recount, launching his Senate career where he eventually became majority leader.