McCain's fate rests on who will vote

Chicago Tribune by Jim Tankersley | Nov. 2, 2008 (News Report)

As the presidential race enters its final weekend after two years of battle, John McCain's best chance for a history-defying comeback rests in the greatest of electoral unknowns: voter turnout.

To win on Tuesday, analysts and polls suggest, the Republican nominee must win nearly all the remaining undecided voters in key swing states and peel a large chunk of "soft" supporters from Democratic rival Barack Obama. Then he must hope that his ... Full Story »

Posted by Fabrice Florin

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Marsha Iverson
4.2
 by Marsha Iverson - Nov. 2, 2008

Excellent presentation of different perspectives on polling, voter turnout estimates, and the variables--known and unknown--that affect interpretation and prediction of the outcome.

There are certainly many variables involved in predicting the future. There also are perhaps more polls than ever before, and absolutely more people making predictions. Sadly, this nation also has a history of voter caging, election fraud, and rigged voting machines. The whole world is watching this election, and more is at stake than the outcome of one election. Voter turnout and accurate ballot counting must be top national priorities--before party, before personal preference, before any other consideration. Our validity as a democracy is at stake.

McCain pollster Bill McInturff said polls that show Obama with wide leads appear to greatly overestimate the number of self-described Democrats. Some show Democrats with a 15-point identification advantage over the GOP; since 1984, McInturff said, the largest Democratic lead in presidential exit polling was 5 points. “What we’re seeing in Missouri and Pennsylvania and in other states,” he said, “is that the Barack Obama number is dropping and John McCain is gradually coming up, and I think he is dropping because of that kind of structural barrier in terms of the historic vote in this country.”

Nothing like spinning the outcome before it happens. While everyone wants their own side to win, where do we draw the line between wishful interpretation and covering up a rigged election before it happens? It is unfortunate that our recent electoral history is so badly tarnished.

Michael McDonald, a George Mason University associate professor who tracks early voting, predicted Friday that this year could approach 64 percent, which would be the biggest percentage since 1908. The question is, who will those voters be? Pollsters disagree.

I applaud vigorous debate, and well understand the intricacies of polling and interpreting results. I wonder to what degree the framing of the questions and the presentation of results are less than scientifically valid. I also wonder if—and how—we can step back from partisan tribalism and focus on what’s best for the whole nation. I’d like to see a poll on that.

History does favor Obama on one turnout count: the weather. AccuWeather.com says it will be unseasonably warm and dry on Election Day. Poor weather, the service noted, citing a 2007 study, tends to boost Republicans.

The weather? This comes down to THE WEATHER??? Oh lordy, I hope that isn’t the deciding factor.

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Marsha's Rating

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