Barone argues persuasively this election will hinge on different combinations of key states that those familiar from 2000 and 2004. Both sides intend to lengthen the playing field, seriously competing in opposing color states and forcing the opposition to expend resources in supposedly safe states. He also illustrates the possible negation of the 'old rule' that hard economic conditions favor the Democrats, an observation backed by polling data and in a way I had not seen a national reporter advance as such before.

This lie will not die, "Hillary Clinton carried the popular vote." Everytime I see/read it, I'm thankful for the "Internets" for news and information. Otherwise, ths article was well-written and enough general information (stat's about who is voting for whom is what states(s)) about the general election to sustain the rating of "somewhat important" bacause of the following profound statement, which summarizes the article: ".... this looks like a presidential race unlike any other."

This is an analysis of the McCain-Obama odds in the general election, based on popularity polls and possible electoral vote distributions. Any analysis in 2008 will find it difficult to assess the impact of a host of factors not considered here: racism, right wing Swift Boating of Obama, the huge Republican money reserves vs. Obama's fundraising prowess, the Republican success at purging voter rolls and implementing Voter I.D. laws, and the mainstream media tendency to trivialize or ignore substantive issues and pounce on sensationalized irrelevancies posing as "human interest" items.

This news analysis has considerable journalistic merit. Mr. Barone defines the middle in American politics; no journalist shows less of his personal opinions in his writings. He also knows more about elections than any other American and this background is demonstrated in the methodical analysis provided in this article. The author makes valid points favoring both Senator Obama and Senator McCain and provides excellent context for the coming election.

While this story does maintain an unbiased filter as it relates to the narrow issue of electoral politics; it does not begin to explain much beyond the same, tired 'electoral horse race.' Mr.Barone fails to explain WHY voters in ecoomically distressed states such as Michigan appear to favor McCain in some polls. Does this reflect the bias in the pollster's corporations, or is it a by-product of the overall narrow scope of 'political reporting?' Mr. Barone also fails to source his contentions, which in the 'alternative' media (or the citizen-blogger media)--would never be accepted. In short, the 'big picture,' is for all practical purposes--invisible--in Mr. Barone's piece, ( with the one exception of the electoral horse race). ... More »