The piece is very speculative, and it's impossible to gauge accurately, with so many critical issues in flux. Six months is a long time in election hours. Nobody can predict the economic storm now brewing, nor the desperation of our troops in both Afghanistan and Iraq. The main-stream media is doing McCain's work, taking turns bashing each Democrat, and ignoring McCain. How FoxNews will spin it doesn't look encouraging for Hillary or Obama. It's difficult to tell how many voters will be turned off by general election time, choosing not to vote or switching to McCain, as the pundits keep pushing. I would add a neglected factor; the Republicans have been assiduously pursuing voter roll purges and identity proof hurdles, which will hurt mostly Democrats.